THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 420 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF STAUNTON VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
BALTIMORE MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING OVER NORTHERN
WV AND MD. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS RATHER
WEAK...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS.
HOWEVER...PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICE...BELIEVE THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT THREAT OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 420 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF STAUNTON VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
BALTIMORE MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING OVER NORTHERN
WV AND MD. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS RATHER
WEAK...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS.
HOWEVER...PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICE...BELIEVE THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT THREAT OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.
-SPC
SPC Probabilities Chart
Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes | Low (10%) |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes | Low (5%) |
Wind
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events | Low (20%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots | Low (10%) |
Hail
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events | Low (20%) |
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches | Low (10%) |
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events | Mod (60%) |
