10:17p Update:
Egads! Models are trending further south again with this storm which could mean a major decrease in our accumulation potential-but before we commit to anything, we'll sleep on this overnight and see tomorrow morning how the storm has developed on the radar and what else is happening in the atmosphere and then give a final call on the storm by noon tomorrow-sleep well and good night. (Mark)
ORIGINAL POST:
WOW-what a morning! We have been through a whirlwind of trying to forecast this storm as yesterday it looked like some parts of Maryland could get a 12+, then the late evening and overnight model runs suggested that there would be no snow north of DC and Annapolis or no snow at all in Maryland. Now at 10am this morning we are almost back to where we started about 24 hours ago-w/ the GFS model still saying this is staying to the south say south of Fredricksburg, VA and the Canadian and NAM models (see the attached NAM model) giving most of MD significant snow, again maybe a foot in some spots and moving the snow line up north past the PA/MD border. I would like see when the 11:30 am GFS run comes out that if it verifies w/ the NAM-but remember the GFS has not always been perfect. So whatever you do, don’t drop your guard on the potential of this storm yet based on what local TV weather reports say-there are many reputable meteorologists on the web who strongly disagree w/ the local weather reports and are still very concerned about this storm moving north.
Egads! Models are trending further south again with this storm which could mean a major decrease in our accumulation potential-but before we commit to anything, we'll sleep on this overnight and see tomorrow morning how the storm has developed on the radar and what else is happening in the atmosphere and then give a final call on the storm by noon tomorrow-sleep well and good night. (Mark)
ORIGINAL POST:
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| NAM 66hr |
Foots Forecast, whom We along with meteorologist Justin Berk collaborate with often, are suggesting that this storm could be stronger than everyone thinks since there is a decent train of moisture feeding into this system from the Pacific. I know this sounds crazy to some, but based on what we have analyzed, we will not at this point significantly decrease our forecasted snow totals-just a slight decrease, but some we have unchanged. Again this is our second call on the storm, we’ll do a final call tomorrow before the storm arrives-remember this storm is forming as we speak-nothing set in stone yet.
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| SECOND CALL ON SNOWFALL |
1-2 Inches: Western Maryland but closer to the Potomac (all snow)
inches North of Baltimore and Frederick, Upper Eastern Shore-should be all snow is this zone
2-4 Inches: Baltimore City on south to Bowie and Annapolis (all snow),
3-4 Inches: Mid and Lower Eastern Shore (except parts of Dorchester)-starts as rain (espec. south) but here we could see 4+ if changeover to snow is sooner (rain to snow)
3-6 Inches: DC and immediate suburbs-more south, less north (all snow)
6-8 Inches: Southern Maryland (lower PG, Charles, St Marys, Calvert) over across the bay to Dorchester County, could see +10 if changeover to snow is sooner. (rain to snow)
inches North of Baltimore and Frederick, Upper Eastern Shore-should be all snow is this zone
2-4 Inches: Baltimore City on south to Bowie and Annapolis (all snow),
3-4 Inches: Mid and Lower Eastern Shore (except parts of Dorchester)-starts as rain (espec. south) but here we could see 4+ if changeover to snow is sooner (rain to snow)
3-6 Inches: DC and immediate suburbs-more south, less north (all snow)
6-8 Inches: Southern Maryland (lower PG, Charles, St Marys, Calvert) over across the bay to Dorchester County, could see +10 if changeover to snow is sooner. (rain to snow)
