THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CONNECTICUT
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AIR MASS IS VERY
MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND DIABATIC HEATING
HAS RESULTED IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG. SWLY MID
LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR TO ENHANCE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes |
Low (10%)
|
| Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes |
Low (5%)
|
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events |
Mod (40%)
|
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots |
Low (10%)
|
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events |
Low (20%)
|
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches |
Low (<5%)
|
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events |
High (70%)
|
